Lucky Card Game is not as it looks like: Page 2

Lucky Card Game is not as it looks like

Alex_Clover

pixel_player40656936 Every time a player plays the Lucky Cards that game is reset. The outcome has nothing to do with previous outcomes. So the 1 in 9 chance of the card you chose being the high card is always going to be 1 in 9. All your post shows is you lack an understanding of true randomness.

Chani

Alex_Clover no, true randomness would present differently than what we're seeing here (yes, even though you're correct that the previous results don't affect future results). This is randomness with different odds for each amount, with the 50k tile having a much lower chance than the other tiles. (I suspect the 5k tile is also artificially low, but not as low as the 50k.)
It's not inherently bad that they've weighted the odds this way, but displaying the results as a set of tiles makes it feel like those tiles should have equal chances of being drawn, the way they would if they were real physical tiles drawn from a bag. It's that disconnect that's making people feel betrayed. I wish they'd chosen a spinning wheel or something instead.

Texas-Mark

Alex_Clover Every time a player plays the Lucky Cards that game is reset. The outcome has nothing to do with previous outcomes. So the 1 in 9 chance of the card you chose being the high card is always going to be 1 in 9. All your post shows is you lack an understanding of true randomness.

Yes and no. It's just like the coin flipping. You always have a 50/50 chance of heads or tails. However, statistically over time, it will be close to the same number of heads as tails. Now, I have been selecting the same spot for probably 6 months or more (and random spots before that). I have only gotten the top award twice. Statistically, I should have gotten it more often (with true 1 in 9 odds). So no, I do not believe it is just a 1 in 9 random placement generator, but more of a random chance you will get it (i.e. 1 in 1000). Sort of like the tin mine with the gem. I cleared that one many hundreds of times and only got a gem once.

Alex_Clover

Chani If the tiles were physical tiles being drawn. then they would not display an evenness of placement over time. That they would is a fallacy people hang onto because they understand to some degree what appears should be statistically true, but this truth is an oversimplification of how randomness displays itself in the physical world. These same people hold the mistaken belief that if a coin is tossed it will come up tails close to 50% of the time, and think the tossing is rigged if it comes up only 20% of the time. They really don't understand chaos theory or how games of chance and the weather are more greatly influenced by events occurring on a quantum level than on any other level. They apply the school of thought that macro events should be the ones influencing macro objects moreso than micro or quantum ones would be.

PF doesn't have to assign different odds to each of the tile amounts for it to come up the way the OP wrote.

red_herring

Alex_Clover ... I hope you are feeling better.

These same people hold the mistaken belief that if a coin is tossed it will come up tails close to 50% of the time, and think the tossing is rigged if it comes up only 20% of the time.

I read recently that a man did an experiment to see how many coin tosses it might take to come out to a 50% distribution. It took over 52,000 times before it averaged out to 50%. Must take an enormous amount of shuffles to average out to a balanced distribution for 9 outcomes.

Chani

red_herring on the other hand, imagine you roll a die a thousand times and get zero sixes. not just somewhat less than one in six, but zero. sure there's technically a chance you just got really unlucky, but practically speaking, it's reasonable to assume you've been handed loaded dice.

I forget the exact math involved in calculating the odds of seeing an improbable set of rolls, but I think we've seen enough results in this thread that it's very unlikely the tiles have even weights.

Chani

Ok, my husband helped with the math. if the tiles are weighted evenly, there's an 8/9 chance of not getting the 50k tile each time. for the 60 "rolls" listed by OP, the chance of all of them not being 50k is (8/9)^60, which is 0.000852802, or 0.0852%. that's less than one in a thousand odds of that happening, looking only at those 60 rolls up there and not all the times I've picked tiles myself. it's not impossible, but it's very very suspicious.

after dinner I'm gonna read https://timothyweber.org/node/255 🙂

Alex_Clover

The math is wrong. The OP did tests of two different spots, each for 30 days, so the 60 in it should be a 30.

Again, games of chance are more greatly influenced by events occurring on a quantum level than any other level. Your perspective is that of what would/should occur if only macro level events were involved.

Chani

Alex_Clover I'm working on the assumption that which spot we pick is irrelevant; why would that matter if the odds were all even? [edit: having thought about it some more, "I'll get better odds if I keep picking the same answer" is just another form of the gambler's fallacy. which tile you pick doesn't matter if the odds are even. if they wrote the code so that it does matter which you pick, the game is even more rigged than I'd expect 😉 ]

https://timothyweber.org/node/255 suggests that doing at least 5 * faces tests is necessary, so 45 in our case, but 100 * f is better. anyone remember how long this thing has been running? I know I've done it every day and never got 50k.

we've also got some sampling bias because people who've never got the 50k are more likely to read this post, but I don't know how to compensate for that. still, >45 non-50k rolls on a single account should be enough to make the matter worth considering.

also, I don't believe that games of chance aren't commonly influenced by the house (anything involving real money will have the odds set so the house reliably makes a profit). it's not like PF has made any claims about what the odds actually are; it's not far-fetched to imagine that a programmer implemented it as a table of weighted odds for what you actually win, and then the graphic designers decided to put that number on a card and scatter the other possible results on the other tiles.

edit: now that I think about it, I bet they re-used some of the code from the other daily reward where you don't pick tiles. 🙂 that one I did get the 40k reward once or twice, but it also feels like it's weighted towards the middle numbers.

edit: additionally, the randomness in question here is that of computers and mobile phones, which is often actually pseudorandomness, with no quantum effects involved. Getting real randomness in a computer is actually a nontrivial problem 🙂

Alex_Clover

Chani edit: additionally, the randomness in question here is that of computers and mobile phones, which is often actually pseudorandomness, with no quantum effects involved. Getting real randomness in a computer is actually a nontrivial problem

Anything which occurs on a quantum level is affected by events occurring on that level. Most computer processes occur on a quantum level. An algorithm used to create randomness in a computer programme is not always followed when executed for this reason.

Back when PCs were fairly new I tried to prove this to a friend of mine. He had created a game which used a "roll" of five die. He was showing it to me and his wife, and was so certain of the randomness which would be created that he was willing to pay a certain amount of money to anyone who was able to "roll" specific combinations in a row. I had told him several times previously that games of chance and the weather were more greatly influenced by events occurring on a quantum level than any other level and why, and also that thought for the main part occurred on a quantum level, so thought could affect the outcome of a game of chance under certain conditions. He always refused to believe me, and this was sort of his way of challenging me. So, with his wife there, I again explained my stance so she would know what was going on. I then said what combination I was going to "roll", hit the Enter button, and the combination then came up. He was flabbergasted. His wife smiled, said "let me try that", then said what combination she wanted, hit Enter, and it came up. I then said the next combination I wanted, hit Enter, and that came up. He was beside himself, but still didn't believe it and stopped the game to study the programme for the next hour or so. He could find nothing wrong but still refused to believe what I had been telling him. His wife, on the other hand, understood what I was saying and believed it was true, which is why her and I were able to manipulate the outcome of the "rolls".

You don't have to accept what I've written about games of chance, but it changes nothing whether you do or not.

Chani

Alex_Clover so... you're arguing that non-quantum computing is actually quantum, and you can somehow mentally control The Quantum to affect the random number generator your friend wrote, and your ability to do this means that the odds on the tile game are exactly 1 in 9?

there's so much wrong with that I don't know where to start. :/

Roeland

Chances are fixed. You could call it rigged. Prizes are determined before opening and it does not matter which card you choose. Here are the numbers found in the game code.

pixel_player18948640

Roeland So the odds ARE rigged. There is nothing random, the tables provided prove it. No wonder I never spent a single penny and never have watched a single commercial provided by the game.

Roeland

Will add: funny conversation. @Alex_Clover could however have known exactly how this works as the sheet with the exact numbers , found in the game code, was published in a FB group he is member of. I personally hate the Lucky Cards. No need to fool us with fake stuff Pixel. And even though I know very well how this actually works, I feel it is my fault each time when choosing the "wrong" card.

AllMenAreIslands

Roeland after a very long wait, I did finally get one. And a couple weeks later, during the recent Valentine events, I got the 50k two days in a row! So, it is there and does come up.

pixel_player38774229

AllMenAreIslands Yeppers so have I a couple of weeks ago.

pixel_player17881062

BlameTheParrot yeah i have the same problem, always choose one in the corner, and the 7000 go always just at the side, ok... but sometimes i open other in any place, and surprise, the 7000 energy go just in the spot i use for 2 months haha and i am abo, the game that is "fixed" and yeah not cool i think, speaking for me, i dont need the chest of the 5th day... but i would like that game (lucky cards) like is suposse to be, LUCKY , well you could change the name of it, to energy cards or so, but luck is luck, not fix 😁

pixel_player17881062

hi, which 50k? this post is not for the lucky cards? to me they give till 7000 energy, i am lvl 160, later it give more? 😁

Chani

pixel_player17881062 yeah, later regions. there's a chart above showing the amounts and odds by region.

PS: bad luck is technically still luck, right? 😉

pixel_player97968612

I have played the same position card for months and have never received the top prize. It appears everywhere else - just not that corner!!!!!

FrankMerino

BlameTheParrot
The players complaining about this are correct. It is rigged to fail, but of course someone... YOU... has to argue the point. If they are going to make a little "random" device like this, the least they can do is make it RANDOM. It IS frustrating...YOU just want to argue... You even went down the list and Liked anyone else that argued ! GO AWAY

BlameTheParrot

FrankMerino
This is a public Player Forum. I was simply offering a different opinion & have a right to do so & "like" any post I choose. We Moderators spend a lot of our free time helping other players & I don't plan to GO AWAY simply because you happen to disagree with my stance on this topic.

I view the (un)Lucky Cards as merely an added bonus for a GAME I happen to love. It's a bummer that I've rarely gotten anything close to the "grand prize." However, I try to remind myself that there are so many things that are frustrating & troubling in my real life & move on.

PS: Hoping you & your loved ❤️ ones are well during this difficult time. Peace & happy digging.

gamemaster

FrankMerino
Agree with the above post.
Players NOT complaining about this are correct.
You can see my previous comment near the top.
I was annoyed for a while then as the above post, just accepted it for what it is and use the free energy as an added bonus and move on.
Especially after Roeland's post with the picture and statement of how it operates.
People like you should GO AWAY and not post if you are going to conduct your posts in that manner.
This is your first post and attack someone that ISN'T the only one that has the same stance of opinion.
They were not arguing the point but pointing out facts.
They did not go down the list and like anyone that argued - you got your sentence wrong, DIDN'T argue.
This topic has been going for 5 MONTHS and people were liked along the time frame, not going down the list and then liking people because of their argument.
Like me, i like those who present a discussion, opinion that resonates with mine.

I feel that the lucky cards should be like the out of energy, it just gives you your value and not pick anything.

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